Initial notes about Aruna roy's draft.

Read the comparison table. notes below. Will update after reading the draft(s)

• Aruna's comparison table is silent on
  
• The transparency of operation
• Citizen's charter. Time bound delivery of services failing which it can be treated as a corrupt practise.
  


• Multiple independent organisation instead of one single organisation
• Who will co-ordinate between the organization.
• Why cannot they be departments under a single organization. It will be easier to move people around depending on the backlog.
  
• How will the mining scam be handled in such an organization (People from all hierarchies of the government are involved)
• Point #2 about jan lokpal in her comparison table is incorrect. refer to Chapter VII in the jan lokpal draft for knowing why the PM is more equal than others.
• Horse trading and other note for vote schemes not covered in Aruna's draft.
• Aruna's Selection committee is weak 3 member (PM, Leader of Opposition and One SC Judge nominated by CJI)
• Janlokpal also includes additional SC Judge 2 HC Judge, CEC, CAG, All previous Lokpal chief.
• Aruna's method of complaining against lokpal members is weak SC is the only option.
• Jan lokpal has Chairman of Lokayukta, Human rights commission , CJ High court , 2 retired civil servents and 2 members of civil society under chairmanship of Retired high court judge evaluating the complaint.
• Chairman of janlokpal is covered by SC.
  

Trying to make sense of SenSex....

Once every few years My colleagues are bitten by the sensex craze... Lunch table conversations discuss nothing but the stock price movements.... The common wisdom is to sell stocks when your colleagues are buying and to buy when they are selling.
But all in all the stock investing pattern in India is more speculation than Investment.

Why do we invest?
The answer is simple to make money.
So Let us say That I have Rs 100 with me today. What are the investment options available to me?

Do Nothing
With India's Inflation rate at 8.33% Next year my 100 Rs will have reduced to 92.3 Rs in purchase power....
Invest in bank FD
With Banks currently offering ~10% rates My 100 Rs would have grown to 101.5 Rs i.e. a growth of 2 Rs in purchasing power.
Invest in GDP (Note not stocks per se. but any activity linked to the GDP Growth)
India's growth rate is currently 8.90 Hence my 100Rs this year will yield 100.53% i.e. .5Rs growth in purchasing power.
Invest in Stocks
Currently most of the stocks on Sensex are @ at PE multiple of around 20/25 assuming the better figure of 20 My Investment of 100Rs this year will result in a Purchasing power of 96.9 next year. So why the frenzy about stock investing.... and the India Growth Story?

To understand the Stock Market Let us look at an entity outside India, The FII. America's current data is Growth 3.2%, Inflation 1.5% FD =4% (??)
So the Investment option above will result in 102.46 for FD, 101.5 for American GDP Growth, 103.4 for Indian Stocks.
Surely Investing in Indian stocks makes better sense for an American Investor.

So Back to making sense of Sensex.

For a pure long term investor Sensex does not make sense. For a person studying the FII Inflow/outflow If the American Growth story is good, Sensex will fall. If it is bad, Sensex will Rise....
And until India's Inflation and Interest rates fall to match the current rate in US. Stocks for Indians would be more speculation than investing